Land-use changes assessed by overlay or mosaic methods: Which method is best for management planning?

Environmental planning must determine management practices for a given territory based on the landscape processes that have occurred over time and their consequences. Therefore, environmental planning decisions must be based on strong empirical evidence that can be easily understood by all involved parties. Several studies have highlighted the methodological deficiencies that occur when obtaining and interpreting such issues, particularly in heterogeneous landscapes with complex interactions. In this paper, we evaluated two methodological approaches that are used in management planning, land use/cover change (LUCC) and mosaic change (MC) to compare their effectiveness and suitability for supporting decision-making. We applied these methods to the coastal landscape of São Sebastião Island, Brazil, which has undergone many changes in the last 50 years. For two years, land use/cover maps were produced using GIS and assessed according to changes in landscape elements (LUCC) and boundaries (MC). Overall, the LUCC failed to identify sets with similar structural heterogeneities in the landscape. However, the LUCC is easier for stakeholders to understand and apply than the MC. The MC method better presented the evolution of the relationship between the landscape elements and heterogeneity.     

Management of ecosystem services in mountain forests: Review of indicators and value functions for model based multi-criteria decision analysis

The main ecosystem services (ES) central European mountain forests provide are: protection against gravitational hazards, timber production, recreation, biodiversity conservation and carbon storage, which are all in high demand. These demands make managing mountain forests a challenging task, involving manifold synergies and conflicts between the different ES. There is therefore an urgent need for appropriate concepts and tools for support decisions in forest management and planning (FMP) to take into consideration all ES and to manage the wide variety of information types, parameters and uncertainties involved in assessing the sustainability of ES. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides a suitable set of methods for sustainability evaluations. In this study sustainability means the persistent fulfilment of the required ES. To address all the phases of the FMP process, MCDA and forest models should be applied together, with indicators providing the main interfaces to combine them. This paper aims to: i) review assessment approaches in order to select appropriate and widely accepted indicators for measuring and assessing the effects of different silvicultural management alternatives on forest ES, and ii) present additional standardisation approaches (value functions) for each indicator. Standardisations are necessary to make the different ES comparable and to study synergies and trade-offs between different management objectives in MCDA. The main ES in central European mountain regions are considered, with a clear focus on those indicators that are directly derivable from forest model outputs and that can refer to sustainable forest management practices. The scales considered are that of the single forest stand and of the larger forest management unit. A holistic indicator-based analysis framework for FMP in mountain forests can be built using the indicators and value functions described. The influence of different management alternatives on ES can then be evaluated, taking into consideration the instruments and information on forest management (forest models, inventory) available. All indicators are selected according to existing and approved approaches that only require data that is normally available in operational forest management. The framework can thus be an important element in developing a decision support system for FMP in mountain forests.     

Virtual traumatology of pregnant women: The PRegnant car Occupant Model for Impact Simulations (PROMIS)

This study report documents the development of a finite element (FE) model for analyzing trauma in pregnant women involved in road accidents and help the design of a specific safety device. The model is representative of a 50th percentile pregnant woman at 26 weeks of pregnancy in sitting position. To achieve this, the HUMOS 2 model, which has been validated in a wide range of dynamic tests, was scaled to the morphology of a woman in the 50th percentile and coupled with a model of gravid uterus. During scaling, special attention was paid to the pelvic region which is known to differ considerably in morphological terms between men and women. The gravid uterus model includes a placenta, a fetus, uterosacral ligaments and the amniotic fluid by means of fluid structure interaction formulation. The uterus and the female model were coupled using an original method whereby the growth of an uterus was simulated to compress the abdominal organs in a realistic manner. The model was validated based on experimental tests described in the literature. Additional tests based on abdominal loadings with a seatbelt on Post Mortem Human Surrogates (PMHS) coupled to silicone uterus were also performed.     

Identifying high value areas for conservation: Accounting for connections among terrestrial,freshwater, and marine habitats in a tropical island system

Functional ecosystems depend on biotic and abiotic connections among different environmental realms, including terrestrial, freshwater, and marine habitats. Accounting for such connections is increasingly recognized as critical for conservation of ecosystems, especially given growing understanding of the way in which anthropogenic landscape disturbances can degrade both freshwater and marine habitats. This need may be paramount in conservation planning for tropical island ecosystems, as habitats across realms are often in close proximity, and because endemic organisms utilize multiple habitats to complete life histories. In this study, we used Marxan analysis to develop conservation planning scenarios across the five largest islands of Hawaii, in one instance accounting for and in another excluding habitat connectivity between inland and coastal habitats. Native vegetation, perennial streams, and areas of biological significance along the coast were used as conservation targets in analysis. Cost, or the amount of effort required for conservation, was estimated using an index that integrated degree and intensity of anthropogenic landscape disturbances. Our results showed that when connectivity is accounted for among terrestrial, freshwater, and marine habitats, areas identified as having high conservation value are substantially different compared to results when connectivity across realms is not considered. We also showed that the trade-off of planning conservation across realms was minimal and that cross-realm planning had the unexpected benefit of selecting areas with less habitat degradation, suggesting less effort for conservation. Our cross-realm planning approach considers biophysical interactions and complexity within and across ecosystems, as well as anthropogenic factors that may influence habitats outside of their physical boundaries, and we recommend implementing similar approaches to achieve integrated conservation efforts.     

Against autonomy: How proposed solutions to the problems of living wills forgot its underlying principle

Significant criticisms have been raised regarding the ethical and psychological basis of living wills. Various solutions to address these criticisms have been advanced, such as the use of surrogate decision makers alone or data science-driven algorithms. These proposals share a fundamental weakness: they focus on resolving the problems of living wills, and, in the process, lose sight of the underlying ethical principle of advance care planning, autonomy. By suggesting that the same sweeping solutions, without opportunities for choice, be applied to all, individual patients are treated as population-level groups—as a theoretical patient who represents a population, not the specific patient crafting his or her individualized future care plans. Instead, advance care planning can be improved through a multimodal approach that both mitigates cognitive biases and allows for customization of the decision-making process by allowing for the incorporation of a variety of methods of advance care planning.     

Analysis of the effects of cesium ions on potassium channel currents in biological membranes

Cesium ions block potassium channels in biological membranes in a voltage dependent manner. For example, external cesium blocks inward current with little or no effect on outward current. Consequently, it produces a characteristic N-shaped current-voltage relationship. We have modeled this result by single file diffusion of ions in a narrow channel spanning the membrane with a special blocking site in the channel for cesium ions. The model enables us to make detailed comparisons of the effects of cesium on potassium channels in different types of biological membranes.     

Fish and fisheries in hot water: What is happening and how do we adapt?

Rapid climate changes are currently driving substantial reorganizations of marine ecosystems around the world. A key question is how these changes will alter the provision of ecosystem services from the ocean, particularly from fisheries. To answer this question, we need to understand not only the ecological dynamics of marine systems, but also human adaptation and feedbacks between humans and the rest of the natural world. In this review, we outline what we have learned from research primarily in continental shelf ecosystems and fishing communities of North America. Key findings are that marine animals are highly sensitive to warming and are responding quickly to changes in water temperature, and that such changes are often happening faster than similar processes on land. Changes in species distributions and productivity are having substantial impacts on fisheries, including through changing catch compositions and longer distances traveled for fishing trips. Conflicts over access to fisheries have also emerged as species distributions are no longer aligned with regulations or catch allocations. These changes in the coupled natural-human system have reduced the value of ecosystem services from some fisheries and risk doing so even more in the future. Going forward, substantial opportunities for more effective fisheries management and operations, marine conservation, and marine spatial planning are likely possible through greater consideration of climate information over time-scales from years to decades.     

Ancient Human Parasites in Ethnic Chinese Populations

Whilst archaeological evidence for many aspects of life in ancient China is well studied, there has been much less interest in ancient infectious diseases, such as intestinal parasites in past Chinese populations. Here, we bring together evidence from mummies, ancient latrines, and pelvic soil from burials, dating from the Neolithic Period to the Qing Dynasty, in order to better understand the health of the past inhabitants of China and the diseases endemic in the region. Seven species of intestinal parasite have been identified, namely roundworm, whipworm, Chinese liver fluke, oriental schistosome, pinworm, Taenia sp. tapeworm, and the intestinal fluke Fasciolopsis buski. It was found that in the past, roundworm, whipworm, and Chinese liver fluke appear to have been much more common than the other species. While roundworm and whipworm remained common into the late 20th century, Chinese liver fluke seems to have undergone a marked decline in its prevalence over time. The iconic transport route known as the Silk Road has been shown to have acted as a vector for the transmission of ancient diseases, highlighted by the discovery of Chinese liver fluke in a 2,000 year-old relay station in northwest China, 1,500 km outside its endemic range.     

垂直绿化生态效益研究综述

全球气候变化和城市化背景下城市生态环境问题越发凸显，面对日趋紧张的土地资源现状，垂直绿化建设成为重要的城市绿地补充手段，对改善城市环境具有重要意义。垂直绿化具有多种生态效益，且其效益发挥受到多因素共同影响。如何统筹协调生态效益和影响因素之间的复杂关系，以使其综合生态效益最大化，是当前垂直绿化建设亟待解决的科学问题之一。基于文献综述法归纳了不同生态效益的机制及其关键影响因素，并对多效益和多影响因素进行了综合分析。结果表明，垂直绿化具有缓解城市热岛、建筑节能减排、固碳、净化空气、降噪、截留雨水和支持生物多样性等七种主要生态效益，并受到植被特征、设施结构特征、气象条件、空间格局等多方面因素的共同影响。基于对效益和影响因素的综合分析，进一步提出了两点规划思路：首先，关注环境需求和效益供给的耦合关系能够更加科学合理地指导区域垂直绿化建设布局。其次，关注生态效益间的关系，以区域关键生态环境问题为导向进行效益权衡并结合考虑其影响因素的重要性程度能为规划设计提供有效建议。